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Showing posts with label FDA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FDA. Show all posts

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Must read: End the FDA Drug Monopoly: Let Patients Choose Their Medicines

End the FDA Drug Monopoly: Let Patients Choose Their Medicines

by Doug Bandow, cato.org
June 11th 2012

Americans want to reduce health care costs and improve patient care. Congress says it wants to do the same, which is why both houses recently voted to renew drug approval "user fees." But it would be better to strip the Food and Drug Administration of its monopoly control over pharmaceutical development.

The FDA was created in 1906, before prescription drugs became a leading medical treatment. The 1962 Kefauver-Harris Amendments vastly expanded agency control over drug approval, giving the FDA, which also regulates most food products, cosmetics, vitamin and dietary supplements, the power to determine efficacy as well as safety of new pharmaceuticals.

Drug discovery is an uncertain business. Unfortunately, new medicines do not appear miraculously, like manna from heaven. Firms typically have to assess between 5,000 and 10,000 substances for every one that survives the extensive testing process and makes it to market. Of those that win approval, 80 percent lose money. Only a few pharmaceuticals pay for the entire development process.
The average cost of developing a new drug runs more than $1 billion, with estimates traditionally ranging between $1.2 and $1.5 billion. The more stringent the FDA controls, the greater the expense. Bernard Munos at InnoThink and Forbes magazine's Matthew Herper recently pegged the development cost much higher.

Critics complain that these numbers include administrative and marketing costs, but what business, let alone government agency, does not have administrative expenses? And marketing is an investment—drug companies advertise to sell more pills. It would be a strange industry if firms created products at great expense and then locked them away, playing a form of consumer hide and seek.

All told, Avik Roy of the Manhattan Institute figured that the consequences if unnecessary regulation "are higher-than-necessary health spending and poorer health outcomes. Pharmaceutical companies charge more for their products, in order to recoup their costly and risky investments. And fewer beneficial drugs reach doctors and patients."

Of course, the FDA claims to protect the public from unsafe, ineffective drugs. But the agency can make two different errors. One is to approve bad products. The other is to block (or delay) good products. Noted Henry Miller of the Hoover Institution: "Public health is harmed when potentially beneficial products are delayed, abandoned, or never tested at all."

The political penalty for the first mistake is high. Congressmen love a spectacle, and there is no better show than denouncing officials for allowing a dangerous product on the market. The specter of Thalidomide, which resulted in birth defects—but was never released in America—still hangs over drug development. (Ironically, the drug has made a comeback as a treatment for Leprosy.)

In contrast, the second mistake rarely carries a price. The absence of a good is harder to recognize than the presence of a bad. Richard Merrill, former FDA chief counsel, wrote: "No FDA official has ever been publicly criticized for refusing to allow the marketing of a drug." At least until AIDS emerged as a veritable death sentence most people seemed unaware that there even was a downside to strict pharmaceutical regulation.

Between 1962 and 1967 the average delay in approval time rose from seven to 30 months. Total drug development time jumped from around three years in 1960 to six years in 1965 and ten years in 1970. The Tufts University Center for Drug Development found little has changed in recent years. Estimates range between 10 and 20 years, most commonly settling around 15 years.

Economist Sam Peltzman concluded that the introduction of new drugs fell by more than half after Kefauver-Harris. Yet there was no comparable drop in the release of unsafe or ineffective pharmaceuticals or withdrawal of unsafe products from the marketplace. Moreover, Peltzman wrote, the "penalties imposed by the marketplace on sellers of ineffective drugs prior to 1962 seem to have been enough of a deterrent to have left little room for improvement by a regulatory agency," an assessment later backed by economists Henry Grabowski and John Vernon.

Increasing delays mean more than increased costs. The process slows the release of beneficial pharmaceuticals. Which means dead and suffering patients.

Years ago analysts began writing about the drug lag created by the FDA. Numerous medicines made it to the European market before they were released in America—drugs which were both safe and effective. Americans did without—or illegally smuggled medicines from overseas. The FDA's slowness did not increase safety: post-approval drug withdrawals were comparable on both sides of the Atlantic. Doctors William Wardell and Louis Lasagna concluded that "the United States has lost more than it has gained from adopting a more conservative approach." Although the U.S. may have edged ahead of Europe over the last decade, the FDA is still harming rather than enhancing the public safety.
Agency controls over advertising and marketing have a similar effect, reducing the speed with which new treatments by existing products are adopted. It often is not economical for a company to go to the expense of winning approval for additional uses for existing products, especially as a drug's patent life ebbs. However, doctors can prescribe the medicines for any treatment they deem appropriate. Alexander Tabarrok of the Independent Institute reported that the vast majority of pediatric, AIDS, and cancer patients have received off-label prescriptions.

Yet drug companies are forbidden to advertise these extra benefits. For years the FDA prevented any mention of aspirin's value in preventing heart attacks or even the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's recommendation that women take folic acid supplements to reduce birth defects. Abbott recently paid $1.6 billion in fines to settle a Justice Department prosecution for promoting unapproved uses of its drug Depakote.

Tolls of doctors ranging from cardiologists to oncologists routinely found that a large majority believed that the FDA was too slow to approve new drugs. AIDS added a new political dimension, compelling, in Greenberg's words: "a grudging administrative recognition that the traditional mission neglected the interest of people whose lives were primarily threatened by the absence of treatment, rather than by unidentified harmful side effects of treatment."

But that recognition remains grudging. The agency periodically has become more industry friendly—regulatory bodies frequently are "captured" by those they supposedly are overseeing, to the detriment of consumers. But this process has not much helped get drugs to market.

FDA procedures were changed to speed release (through "Accelerated Approval") of drugs designed to treat life-threatening conditions. The improvement was real, but limited. Nature Biotechnology pointed out that only a handful of drugs have gone through the process and that "in recent years, FDA has been ratcheting up the requirements." Moreover, this initiative did nothing for the vast majority of drugs which benefit the vast majority of people.

The human toll has been high. Pharmaceuticals have significantly improved people's lives. But much more could be done. Where treatments are few the sick and dying feel helpless. For instance, the Wall Street Journal reported on patients with Lou Gehrig's disease who, "frustrated by the slow pace of clinical drug trials or unable to qualify, are trying to brew their own version of an experimental compound at home and testing it on themselves."

The greatest harms from drugs typically result from misuse or misprescribing rather than unexpected side effects. The deadliest latter problem pre-1962 involved Elixir Sulfanilamide, which killed 107 people. Through 1980, figured Dale Gieringer, an expert in drug regulation, the highest death toll may have been 3500 dead around the world due to Isoproterenol, an inhaler for asthmatics. (Thalidomide resulted in 10,000 or more birth defects, but no deaths.)

In recent years significant drug problems have typically involved deaths in the scores. In 2007 Merck settled roughly 3500 death claims charged to the painkiller Vioxx without admitting that the drug was responsible (the company won 11 of 16 individual cases before agreeing to general settlement). Moreover, argued Gieringer: "there have been only one or two major drug accidents that could have been averted through stricter premarket testing, and one or two that could not have been prevented."
The death toll from over-regulation is far greater. Pharmacologist William Wardell concluded that the five year delay in allowing the hypnotic Nitrazepam to be used in America (after Britain's approval) cost 3,700 lives. He believed that the FDA also cost thousands of lives by preventing the sale of the first beta-blocker Propranolol for three years after it was available in Europe, and another seven years before it could be used for its most useful purposes. Sam Kazman of the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) figured the annual beta-blocker toll at 17,000. Overall, he wrote, "as many as 100,000 people may have died waiting for FDA to act."

Indeed, CEI warned that the agency has delayed the arrival of a host of live-saving medicines: ancrod, citicoline, ethyol, femara, glucophage, interleukin-2, navelbine, lamictal, omnicath, panorex, photofrin, prostar, rilutek, taxotere, transform, and vasoseal. While the specifics vary, the combined human cost has been high. Gieringer explained: "The benefits of FDA regulation relative to that in foreign countries could reasonably be put at some 5,000 casualties per decade or 10,000 per decade for worst-case scenarios. In comparison… the cost of FDA delay can be estimated at anywhere from 21,000 to 120,000 lives per decade. These figures would seem to support the conclusion that the costs of post-1962 regulation outweigh benefits by a wide margin, similar to Peltzman's results of a 4:1 cost-benefit ratio for the 1962 amendments."

Some illnesses rob people of many of the pleasures of life rather than of life itself. Noted Gieringer: the foregoing estimates "completely ignore the drug benefits of reduced morbidity from crippling strokes, polio, and other nonfatal illnesses, the value of which in many cases may be comparable to that of life itself."

Even harder to assess are the lost benefits from drugs not developed or marketed. Tabarrok pointed to the problem of "orphan diseases," rare conditions affecting relatively few people. The higher drug development costs, the less likely products will be produced for these ailments. He wrote: "Thus, millions of Americans have few or no therapies available to treat their diseases because of increased costs of drug development brought about by stringent FDA 'safety and efficacy' requirements."
The FDA is killing people. With kindness, perhaps. But it is killing, nonetheless.

Obviously, the answer is not to ignore safety. Rather, the regulatory process needs to reflect current scientific opportunities and patient needs. Observed John Lechleiter, the CEO and Chairman of Eli Lilly & Co.: "We can't have a 1950s or 1960s or 1970s regulatory system when we're doing 2011 or 2012 or 2020 science."

Regulatory reform by the FDA would help. However, Henry Miller warned that "within the current system, regulators' self-interest is not served by the implementation of meaningful change, so real reform is never accomplished." Indeed, of late the agency seems focused on the trivial. Two years ago the FDA proposed requiring movie theaters to release calorie counts for popcorn, only to retreat in the face of popular scorn mixed with political pressure.

Legislative initiatives for revamping the FDA and speeding drug approval abound. However, more fundamental change is necessary. For instance, Henry Miller would require continued FDA approval, but instruct the agency to anoint competitive "drug certifying bodies" (DCBs), which would actually review drugs. The government could be restricted to judging safety, leaving efficacy up to the marketplace. After all, assessing effectiveness is what markets do every day. Andrew von Eschenbach, a former head of both the FDA and National Cancer Institute, proposed establishing a pilot program allowing drugs "to be approved based on safety, with efficacy to be proven in later trials."

Better would be to eliminate the FDA's monopoly over drug safety as well. Explained Corinne and Robert Sauer of the Jerusalem Institute for Market Studies: "drugs are expensive not because of a lack of competition among research-based pharmaceutical companies, but because of a lack of competition in the drug approval process."

One approach would be to allow the sale of pharmaceuticals (and medical devices) approved by the regulatory agencies of other industrialized states. If an industrialized Asian or European nation has released a product to market, it could legally be sold in America, subject to a showing of unreasonable danger.

Best would be to make the FDA's approval advisory. If you only trust the U.S. government, then only take medicines (or use medical devices) endorsed by the agency. Otherwise consider the opinion of doctors, hospitals, and other medical providers, as well as look for certification by public or private organizations. The Sauers suggest leaving approval to private DCBs.

They point to a similar system which operates to regulate the sale of kosher food. A private agency, Underwriters' Laboratory, also tests electrical products. No law requires review, but wholesalers, retailers, and customers prefer products so certified. UL even helps local governments develop building codes.

Organizations interested in patient care could undertake or promote testing of new medicines. For instance, the American Hospital Formulary Service Drug Information manages a comprehensive drug database; the ECRI Institute researches patient care; the National Comprehensive Cancer Network, an organization of cancer hospitals, publishes a reference of cancer drugs; and the United States Pharmacopoeia Convention sets standards for prescription and over-the-counter drugs. Providers or provider associations (such as the American Medical Association and American Hospital Association) or insurers could pay to have products reviewed.

The industry might even establish and fund an organization, which would be left to operate independently. Reputation would be everything for an evaluation agency: if seen as a tool of industry no one would believe its assessments. And no association or company would have an incentive to fund it.

The most important principle for reform should be freedom of choice. People, in consultation with their doctors and other medical professionals, should be allowed to make different decisions reflecting their unique medical needs and risk assessments.

In many cases there is no one right medical decision. The FDA recently stripped Avastin of approval for use in treating breast cancer. Medical professionals disagree on the drug's value. Two recent studies found that Avastin had some value in treating metastatic breast cancer. One concluded that adding the medicine resulted in "significantly higher rates of pathologic complete response." Maybe the benefits don't justify the cost. However, the government should not deny this treatment option to people who are desperately ill with a disease that is most often fatal.

The current system presumes a trade-off between efficiency and safety. But Henry Miller argued that "If we can end regulatory excesses, introduce competition into regulatory oversight, and redirect government involvement to those few activities where a central, monopolistic role is essential, more patients will benefit from a greater number of drugs made available to them in a timelier way."
Who should decide what drugs to use? Patients. They need advice, not diktats. Congress should strip the FDA of its regulatory monopoly over pharmaceuticals and medical devices. The public health would benefit.


Original Page: http://pocket.co/sG3fL
Shared from Pocket

Monday, May 28, 2012

New biopharma hero: Sen. Rand Paul

Suspend for a moment whatever political party allegiance you may have (D or R for most US readers), and let's celebrate an injection of common sense into the FDA's regulatory regime by Kentucky Senator Rand Paul.

Recently the US Senate passed an FDA-centric bill which allows the FDA to consider clinical trial data sourced overseas outside the FDA's typical authority. (I believe that you can currently use data sourced outside the USA, but only with strict application of FDA rules to the ex-USA trial sites. The new law would allow the FDA to accept data from well-structured trials conducted outside of the auspices of the FDA (but under trials run by other responsible regulatory agencies, such as those in the EU or Japan.) We're not talking about quicky clinical trials in Zimbabwe gaining equivalence to US trials the way a Las Vegas quicky marriage is to weddings elsewhere in the US, but rather acknowledging the competence of other regulators around the globe, and the fact that there may be more than just the FDA's way to run a "good" clinical trial.

Another reform pushed by Paul is the elimination of weapons carrying by FDA enforcement agents. Paul's point here is two-fold: we don't need as many armed bureaucrats when the FBI already exists to handle armed enforcement of Federal law, and 2) it is silly that the FDA conducts raids of any sort against small producers, such as on milk farmers. Seriously, the FDA DOES conduct armed raids on farms to enforce food safety laws. The laws are necessary and enforcement is important, but really, are the guns necessary? Are they for the cows or the milkmaids? Likewise, are weapons necessary to raid the offices of a biopharma company?

(Unfortunately, Paul's amendment ending armed enforcement failed to pass the Senate, likely because his amendment also called for the loosening the rules around advertising of health products..)


We need more common sense in our food and drug regulation. I've previously called for the "D" in the FDA to be spun off into its' own agency, and I think Paul's ideas make a ton of sense.

Hat tip: the very excellent Marginal Revolution blog pointed out this story originally.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

"Our life spans are much shorter than the FDA approval process."

Stunning story in today's WSJ about ALS patients who are making an experimental drug for ALS at home, on their own, and testing it on themselves. No FDA, no GLP, no IRBs, no control group - just patients in need doing what they can.

ALS (Lou Gehrig's disease) strikes fast, while the drug development, clinical testing, and regulatory approval processes moves slow. I understand the need of scientists and regulators for process, structure, and control, but I do not often enough see a reciprocal amount of flexibility or practicality in drug development. I've often wondered, for example, why we need placebo control arms in clinical trials targeting terminal diseases. Don't we already have a deep enough understanding of the life expectancy of a stage III lung cancer patient (for example)?


The one positive in the ALS article is the spirit of those with ALS who have taken up their own experimental effort. I admire their resourcefulness and fighting spirit.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Uh-oh. (New cancer biology understanding to negate targeted RX?)

A NEJM article coming in 3 days is reported to prove that cancerous tumors are not monolithic in their genomic profile - to the extreme that multiple samples of the same patient's tumor express different genetic mutations, with only limited commonalities among samples from the same tumor. (Early news coverage here (WSJ), here (Bloomberg), and here (FierceBiotech).)

Implications: this is going to turn some worlds on their heads Here's my quick guesses at implications:


  • Cancer just became even harder to solve. Think chess is complex? How about 3-D chess? That's pretty much the leap in complexity that cancer researchers just experienced. 
  • Possible boon for DNA sequencing: demand for multiple sequences per patient may make DNA sequencing a bigger market faster. The NEJM study suggests that sequencing a tumor longitudinally (i.e. at a regular schedule, during treatment) will guide multiple treatment decisions, which may differ based on new expression patterns or mutations. Does this also mean that each tumor will be sampled many times in different sites at diagnosis? If so, we may move from 1 sequence/patient to dozens of sequences per patient. (Good gosh that's ALOT of data. 1 terabyte per sequence is hard enough to handle. 20 TB/patient? Wow.)
  • Anyone working on hazily predictive PGX might be wise to give up. The idea of a single analyte for a single disease, or a number of analytes against a number of diseases probably only targets one portion of a given disease. In other words, if your predictive test isn't 100% predictive, you are only explaining a fraction of the disease, and therefore of negligible utility.
  • This might be the death of Affymetrix.  I can't see much value from a highly variable 1-dimensional expression profile, unless they invent a way to generate multiple expression profiles from a single sample at roughly the sample price point.
  • This news might actually boost sales of targeted therapies in the near term. Why test for HER-2 status? Even if a patient is tested HER-2 negative, an oncologist wouldn't be out of line to still treat with Herceptin, knowing that the HER-2 negative status may only apply to a portion of the tumor.
  • Along the same lines, the NEJM finding may give a boost to combination therapies. For example, Sutent, Nexavar (VEGFR and PDGFR) and Raf kinases), Torisel (mTor), Votrient (VEGFR-1, VEGFR-2, VEGFR-3, PDGFR-a/β, and c-kit), and Inlyta ( VEGFR-1VEGFR-2VEGFR-3,platelet derived growth factor receptor (PDGFR), and cKIT (CD117).) are each sold for RCC (kidney cancer) but each seem to be only marginally effective. They have different inhibitory profiles though - could combining them produce a better outcome? Roche would seem to be in the best position to gain if combinations are successful.
  • Would a need for combination therapies be the straw that breaks the camels's back on the American health care system or even the USA? If treatment with a single targeted therapeutic may be $30,000 per month, would a combination therapy be $100k/month? I can't imagine Medicare and private insurers are ready to pay these sums. If they are, Medicare is already a multi-trillion dollar liability. Wanna go for quadrillion dollar liability?
  • This may be a boon to systems biology researchers, like Lee Hood and his team at the ISB. Hood has for a long time seen cancer not as a product of a single mutation, but rather a cascade of biological signals which in total result in cancer. 
  • Expect more attention to early detection and treatment. Cancers are FAR less complex in their earlier stages of development.
  • Just a guess on my part: more surgical biopsies, less needle biopsies if more tumor material is needed?
  • The result: we need more different cancer meds to mix and match patient profiles. Could the FDA loosen up a little on approval requirements, or would this make it even more difficult, as any new targeted drug for a given disease would need to succeed or fail in combination with other targeted therapies? (i.e. more false negatives a false positives from combinatorial effects.)
  • Good news/bad news. Bad news: every single clinical-stage targeted therapy just became less valuable. That drug targeting gene "X" is less valuable, now that gene "X" explains less of the disease. Good news: targeted drugs that narrowly failed late stage trials might be resurrected. Maybe the drug didn't fail because it wasn't effective against the target, but rather because the target explains less of the disease than previously believed.

Ultimately, this news dampens the optimism for personalized medicine, but because of cancer's proven ability to mutate, most of us knew that cancer would not be beaten by single silver bullets.

Sunday, February 26, 2012

NGS & DX?

There's an interesting conversation going on about error rates in DNA sequencing in the Genomics (NGS) group on LinkedIn. Some are wondering if development of DNA sequencing diagnostic applications will be delayed by the experienced error rates (up to 4% on some platforms, including Oxford Nanopore.)

My take: I think the barriers to adoption of sequencing technologies as diagnostics are:

-any error-intolerant application is still likely to rely on RT-PCR for a while to come. (Example: detecting specific BCR-ABL mutations in CML patients.)

If you have a specific gene of interest, or even genes (up to about 10 or 20, depending on who you listen to) 

-PCR still wins the day, because of accuracy, speed, cost, privacy concerns, and the fact that PCR apps have familiar payor and FDA tracks. (Many PCR assays code for reimbursement <$300, so NGS still has a way to go to win on price.)

NGS, on the other hand will be used for broad discovery and in cases where patients are willing to pay out of their own pocket at least until the economics change, and the FDA approves a platform/assay combo such as Foundation Medicine. I'd say that we're at least 2 years away from that, regardless of error rate.    



Two other NGS points, neither worth a dedicated post for now: now that Oxford Nanopore and LifeTech are both promising ~$1,000 genome from new tech platforms:

-what does the future hold for BGI (Beijing Genomics Institute) that has made a name for itself by buying roomfuls of largely Illumina sequencers? I'd like to be a fly on the wall when someone suggests that they put 10's of millions of dollars of Illumina equipment out to pasture and invest further millions in new GridIon or Ion Torrent equipment.

-will Roche drop their Illumina takeover bid? A ~$6B hostile takeover of the former leader makes less sense now. It will also be interesting to see if ILMN's board changes their mind, and sells now. 

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Xcovery blog revisited (state of targeted Rx)

About five years ago I started a blog dedicated to targeted therapeutics, especially kinases inhibitors. The blog was an outgrowth of Xcovery, the kinase discovery spin-out from the Scripps Research Institute that I started and served as EVP of Business Development. 

I was already tracking developments in biopharm so the blog was an outlet for some of basic analysis and a fun way to share my opinion and connect with others in the industry. 

One of the regular bits of analysis was tracking the performance of FDA approved targeted drugs. Just for fun, here's a five year update, with some analysis:

 



















Of note:

  • The 17 approved molecularly targeted drugs accounted for $27B in global sales in 2011. Think about that for a second, then consider that most of these drugs have been on the market for only 5-6 years, and their approved indications are still growing. Consider too that most have not been applied as combination therapies.
  • Even the senior citizen of the group (Herceptin, approved in 1998), has seen prolonged growth, averaging 36% per year over the last five years.
  • With 8 blockbusters and several more close and still growing (Tasigna, Sprycel, etc), almost all of the targeted drugs are either blockbusters, or well on their way. So much for the concern that targeting drugs might limit the market potential.
  • The top 4 (Avastin, Herceptin, Gleevec, and Lucentis) have made a mockery of their projected sales ceilings and are still growing strongly.
  • On the other hand, the only assets that appear to be underperforming expectations are Amgen’s Vectibix, GSK’s Tykerb, and Pfizer’s Torisel (specific sales data isn’t available for 2011, as Torisel is listed under “other oncology,” totaling ~$130M across several drugs.)
  • Vectibix is still playing catch up to Erbitux, and Tykerb hasn’t gained much traction against the Roche juggernaut.
  • I wonder what Amgen’s new CEO will do about Vectibix. It seems that there’s 2 choices: go big (invest in expanding trials for more indications and in comparison with Erbitux) or go home (sell the product to another biopharm.)
  • 4 of the top 6 are Roche drugs, which means that they were discovered by Genentech. Hats off again to the DNA team in South San Francisco for their amazing science and productivity. I wonder if we will ever see any other drug discovery effort be so inventive and productive for a prolonged period.
  • Also: I don’t think anyone is doubting the wisdom of Roche buying the piece of DNA that Roche didn’t own. I haven’t run the numbers, but I’d be shocked if the DNA acquisition wasn’t a resounding financial win for Roche.
  • Unfortunately, OSI’s acquisition of Macugen was a tremendous dud.
  • I am encouraged by the progress since my last analysis in 2006 – an average of two new approvals each year, with most new products addressing new targets or diseases, in contrast to the incremental “me too-ism” in other pharma areas like ED or cholesterol drugs.
A few sweeping generalizations:
  • FDA approval and sales success seem to be connected to corporate resources. Small to mid-cap biotechs have been chasing targeted therapies for ~15 years without much output. (I’m talking about companies such as Exelixis, Vertex (pre-HepC), Ariad, etc., though I don’t mean to pick on specific companies.) With three exceptions (Onyx’s Nexavar, OSI’s Tarceva, and the former ImClone’s Erbitux), the targeted therapies have largely been developed in-house by “old” companies with multi-billion dollar market caps and the resources to match. (You could make the case that Amgen’s Vectibix came from a small targeted effort at Abgenix, but I suspect that it was Amgen’s resources that got Vectibix through FDA approval. Similarly, Sutent started at Sugen, but Pharmacia and Pfizer seemed to have provided the big push.)
  • A gross generalization: the small to mid-caps tend to lack broad biological or disease-specific expertise, instead investing in target-specific expertise, or platform-specific expertise, thinking that broad expertise (ancillary to their target or disease of interest) is expensive overhead. I wonder if the results to date argue for the big pharma discovery model, or just reinforces the need for a broad portfolio to be successful in drug discovery and development.
  • With rare exception (as in Pfizer’s Xalkori and Novartis’ Gleevec), the path to FDA approval has been arduous for these drugs. There are a number of targeted drug developers who hold out hope that their P2 or P3 results will be so clear and strong that their clinical trials will be stopped early and approved quickly. That’s definitely the exception, unfortunately, and even in the positive trials for targeted drugs, the data has tended to be good, not great. I suspect that is a function of the requirements of clinical trial design and comparison to first-line chemotherapies. As a result the “new” drugs are posting smallish survival benefits when compared to the “old” therapies, with no accounting for how certain patient segments have had dramatic benefits. (Thus starting the vicious circular argument that targeted therapies ought to have stratified patient populations in clinical trials, but stratifying patients shrinks the market potential for such drugs, bring the business viability of the targeted therapy into question.) It seems that the FDA could take the Xalkori experience and develop a novel process for rapid approval based on patient stratification without derailing or obviating more broad approval for the drug.
The $27B in revenue in this segment (likely to grow past $50B in 2014) has hopefully served to further de-risk pharma R&D in molecularly targeted therapeutics. Coupled with advancements in medicinal chemistry, we will hopefully see more and better targeted therapies in the future. 

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Werd!

Former FDA Commissioner and NCI director Andrew von Eschenbach has a good editorial in the WSJ about how the FDA needs to modernize to help patients and the medical industry.

I was particularly struck by his point that the FDA regulatory responsibility covers $.25 of every dollar in consumer spending - from tobacco products to vaccines. In essence, the FDA's mission applies as much to sprouts (which have been subject to e.coli breakouts) as stem cells.

von Eschenbach does't propose it, but what if the "D" part of the FDA was spun out into its' own agency? With an organization built specifically for regulating modern medicine, we might end up with regulations and processes optimized for 21st century medical innovation.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Who wins from DNA sequencing? (Multi-target drugs)

First came the notion of specific inhibitors of kinase signaling, and Gleevec was originally the embodiment of the idea of inhibiting just a single gene fusion - BCR-ABL. With the fine targeting came low financial expectations - I recall NVS predicting that Gleevec could have annual revenues of as much as $200M. (Actually Gleevec annual revenues for NVS are ~$4B, both because they had most expectations of the market, and because Gleevec isn't so specific, which is a good thing.)

Then, Exelixis introduced the idea of intentional multi-kinase inhibition, though some wondered if this was less of a design intention, and more of a tolerance of the notion that complete specificity may be impossible.

Last year saw the introduction of FDA approval of inhibitors not just for a single gene target, but a specific mutation of a specific gene (e.g. Zelboraf for BRAF V600E, though it comes with certain problems.)

It appears that the next wave is being unleashed by Foundation Medicine - DNA sequencing to match drug to cancer and suggest mixes of drugs, where appropriate.

The conclusions put forward by Foundation Med are not novel in theory, but a very exciting in practice.

What is also exciting is how use of DNA sequencing may unlock new markets for existing drugs. Big Pharma, I think, has generally worried that personalized medicine may result in lower revenue ceilings for new drugs, thus tilting the economics of drug discovery out of favor. (Because it generally costs about the same to develop a blockbuster as it does a niche drug.)

But if the Foundation Med results are indicative of future broader results, the economics may become even more favorable. Case in point is Pfizer's Sutent, FDA approved in 2006, and a $1B blockbuster as of 2010, based on its' application in renal cell carcinoma and GIST (specific stomach tumors).

Foundation Med's research is suggesting that Sutent could be very effective in about 2% of all lung cancer patients. What's that means to Pfizer?

US annual lung cancer incidences: ~225,000
Worldwide (rough): 675,000
Sutent-beneficial lung cancers: 13,500 (worldwide)
Sutent treatment cost (rough): $40,000 per patient
Sutent lung cancer "niche" market potential: $540,000,000.
Pfizer price/sales ratio: 2.43x
Implied increase in Pfizer's stock value from the new lung cancer "niche:" $1.3B or a stock price about $.17 higher.

Realistically, Pfizer & Sutent can't capture all of that market, but finding another half-a-billion dollar market - with the hope for more - has got to be exciting to Pfizer. It should also be exciting to other targeted drug makers and researchers.

Also exciting is the notion that Foundation's research results are the tip of the iceberg - we can expect tumor DNA sequencing research to reveal more mutations and drug gable opportunities. Let's just hope that the FDA becomes much more flexible in approving novel sequence-specific applications (or at least tolerating widespread off-label use).

Saturday, February 11, 2012

FDA on biosimilars

Great WSJ article today summarizing the FDA's new rules for biosimilars.

Included in the rules discussion is this list of the top 10 biologics:

While I knew they were big sellers, I hadn't realized that the big 3 RA biologics accounted for $19.5B in annual sales. That's roughly equal to the GDP of the country of Bolivia. Total sales of biologics are greater than the annual economy of New Zealand. Keep in mind, this entire class of drugs did not exist until 1989. (I'm guessing that the first FDA approved recombinant biologic was Amgen's Epo, in 1989.)

As for the newly announced FDA regulations on biosimilars, they strike me as very fair - the regs acknowledge that the biosimilars have a lower regulatory burden than a "novel" (i.e. not biosimilar) drug, yet are not considered a typical generic. As opposed to chemical generics, biosimilars will need significant data to receive FDA approval, and will not be able to be marketed as exact copies.